October 7, 2025
In part two of our 2025 Holiday Outlook series, we dive deeper into our annual study of over 1,500 holiday shoppers. The results are eye-opening, uncovering that shoppers are budget conscious but willing to spend, loyal yet open to switching brands, and cautious yet seeking meaningful experiences. Here are 8 key stats that should shift how you approach the holiday season and why performance-driven promotions are your competitive advantage.
1. Anticipated holiday spending remains virtually unchanged
Anticipated holiday spend remains virtually flat this year at $847.99, a minimal increase from last year's $845.10. While budgets appear stable, 61% of shoppers cite inflation as a top concern, meaning their dollars aren’t going as far as last year. Expect shoppers to be more prudent with their purchases this year.
Average anticipated holiday household spend
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What it means for your brand:
While spending isn’t expected to change much, shoppers may feel that their budgets are more constrained due to rising prices caused by economic pressures. Brands that can demonstrate clear value through targeted promotions can capture more value than brands relying solely on brand loyalty.
2. Openness to trying new brands is up 10 percentage points over last year
As a direct consequence of shoppers prioritizing value, openness to trying new brands has increased significantly over last year (55% in 2025 vs. 45% in 2024, a 10% point difference). For small and emerging brands, this is a massive opportunity to drive brand trial and customer acquisition. The key motivator is attractive discounts or promotions, cited by 63% of shoppers as the most significant reason to try new products. But product reviews and recommendations from others hold a lot of weight as well. This underscores the power of providing compelling offers to capture the attention of a consumer base that is actively looking for a reason to switch.
What it means for your brand:
This is a big brand switching opportunity. Established brands need to be aware of their vulnerabilities and reward loyal customers while emerging brands have a massive acquisition opportunity. Advertisers on the Ibotta Performance Network average a 29% increase in new customer acquisition within one year, and can be the tipping point to cause a consumer to switch while they’re apt during the holidays.
3. Self-gifting is down 12 percentage points
As consumers focus on managing their budgets, the data shows a double-digit percentage drop in shoppers buying gifts for themselves – down from 35% in 2024 to 23% in 2025. This shift is accompanied by a continued desire to give meaningful gifts to others. On a semantic scale, consumers prioritize finding unique or personalized gifts over those that are easy to find (58% to 24%). This creates an emphasis on intentional gift giving during a cautious economic climate.
As consumers focus on managing their budgets, the data shows a double-digit percentage point drop (12%) in shoppers buying gifts for themselves – down from 35% in 2024 to 23% in 2025. This shift is accompanied by a continued desire to give meaningful gifts to others. On a semantic scale, consumers prioritize finding unique or personalized gifts over those that are easy to find (58% to 24%). This creates an emphasis on intentional gift giving during a cautious economic climate.
What it means for your brand:
Due to the large drop in self-gifting this year, messaging must pivot to focus on thoughtful giving rather than self-indulgence. Ways to accomplish this include highlighting unique and personalized products within your ads and other promotional offerings. Brands with products often purchased as self-gifts can leverage proven promotional tactics to drive incremental sales on an ongoing basis, particularly during expected slumps.
4. Only 39% of shoppers plan to buy holiday decor, prioritizing what they need most
Consumers continue to prioritize essential items as a money-saving strategy this holiday season by reducing their emphasis on decorative items. The purchasing of holiday decorations and seasonal household items is expected to decrease, with only 39% of shoppers planning to buy these items, down from 56% in 2024. This trend is a clear signal that consumers are prioritizing practical, necessary purchases over new decorative items this year. Brands in this vertical should focus on demonstrating exceptional value through promotions to attract the smaller pool of interested buyers, and even change the minds of those who plan not to make those purchases.
What it means for your brand:
If your brand is in the holiday decor space, it’s critical to be aware of the expected decline in purchases within the category and provide incentives accordingly. However, other brands leverage the insight that shoppers plan to purchase less holiday decor. We can infer that if shoppers expect to spend less on what is often seen as a non-essential item, such as holiday decor, they will put a higher priority on more necessary purchases. And that provides a major opportunity during this seasonal moment.
5. Less than 1% of shoppers will cut back on food purchases for the holidays
The food vertical is a strong, stable category for holiday spending. Our data shows 66% of surveyed shoppers will purchase food and beverages (51% for food and 39% for beverages, respectively) for the holidays, and a significant 41% will buy them as gifts. Food is also the first purchase category that consumers are least likely to cut back, with less than 1% of shoppers saying they would do so. CPG brands are in a prime position this holiday season to win over consumers, making market share gains and driving incremental sales.
What it means for your brand:
These stats show that food and beverage brands are a core part of holiday traditions and a key way for consumers to manage their budgets on essential purchases. CPG brand strategies should focus on capturing both the meal planner and the gift giver with targeted promotions, particularly during the concentrated December shopping period.
6. 86% of consumers will do the majority of their shopping in November or December
Our previous Holiday Outlook revealed that the majority of holiday shopping will occur within a shorter window. 86% of consumers will do the majority of their shopping in November or December, with a large surge in December (40% vs. 27% last year). And that’s a strong signal for brands to adjust their promotional timing. While some shoppers will get started early to reduce stress – as one-third will at least get started by the end of September – the vast majority will wait.
When consumers plan to do the majority of their holiday shopping
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What it means for your brand:
In years past, we’ve often seen that holiday shoppers are buying earlier to spread out their purchases and capitalize on early deals to maintain their budgets. This year it’s evident that they’re waiting to capitalize on some of the best deals. Therefore, brands need to make themselves highly visible and have their most compelling promotions and ads live during the last two months of the year.
7. Two-thirds of shoppers plan to use Black Friday as a savings tool
One reason shoppers wait until November and December to shop is to capitalize on big deal days. Black Friday is no longer just a shopping event; it is a critical budgeting tool for most shoppers. Two-thirds (66%) of shoppers plan to use Black Friday as a savings technique, up from 58% last year. It has consistently been rising in importance each year since we started tracking it in 2022. One-third (32%) cite it as the best savings event, which is a significantly higher figure than those who identify Cyber Monday (14%) or Prime Day (11%) as the best savings event.
Percentage that say they will use Black Friday as a savings technique
What it means for your brand:
It’s evident that shoppers are utilizing deal events as a key strategy to save money this holiday season. It’s no secret that brands should tap into these deal events to capture consumers while they’re actively seeking deals.
8. Ads highlighting deals are 47% more likely to grab the attention of gift-givers
Shoppers are looking for value, but they also seek authenticity. Our research shows that ads that highlight money-saving deals and offers are the most likely to grab attention (47%). However, ads that are also highly relevant to a shopper’s interests (39%) and from brands they already trust (35%) also play a pivotal role. This suggests a need for an advertising strategy that combines compelling value with trustworthiness and personalization, ensuring that your promotional efforts resonate with a consumer’s mindset.
What it means for your brand:
While the data confirms that promotions and deals are the most effective way to grab attention, this alone is not enough to drive holiday purchases in a cautious economy. To truly resonate with shoppers, brands must ensure their ads are highly relevant to individual interests and come from places that they already shop. Leveraging proven performance marketing platforms can help your brand do just that.
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