September 28, 2026
David Parisi
The holiday shopping season was never just about Black Friday and Cyber Monday. It's Halloween candy, Thanksgiving tables, holiday entertaining, and New Year's resets, a stretch that runs nearly three months long. Now we’re seeing that even the extended window doesn't capture when shoppers actually start making decisions.
Recent consumer research from Ibotta found that 36% of consumers who planned to shop summer deal events like Prime Day, Walmart Deal Days, and Target Circle Days expected to use those moments to get a head start on holiday shopping. Fast forward to today, amidst the peak of Back to School, and the number climbs. Of the shoppers we surveyed, 44% say they start thinking about, or even buying for, the holidays during the Back-to-School season.
As consumers continue to adopt more flexible routines to insulate themselves from the pressures of inflation, they’re prioritizing value and often planning ahead to make sure they get it. Budget-conscious shoppers aren't waiting for a single event to give them permission to plan, they're hunting for value wherever and whenever it shows up, including right now.
That context matters. A back-to-school purchase isn't always just a back-to-school purchase. For a lot of households, it may be the first touchpoint in a longer sequence of decisions, budgets, and brand preferences that can carry straight through to December, even if their holiday shopping doesn't ramp up until much later.
Looking at Ibotta’s panel of purchase data, we see that the traditional holiday shopping peak still holds. Total purchase volume grew 7% week over week across November and December 2025 versus the two prior months, and for promotions specifically, total redemption volume increased 20% during the six-week holiday period compared to the six weeks prior. This isn’t a contradiction though.
As our research reveals, shoppers are forming opinions and building consideration right now, even if the bulk of their holiday shopping still happens in Q4. That doesn’t change how important the peak shopping window still is; brands need to show up and compete when November and December arrive. But the peak was never the whole picture. The bigger opportunity is sitting in the smaller moments leading up to it, happening right now, while preferences are still being formed and loyalties haven't locked in yet.
So what should brands do?
Keep investing in the peak holiday shopping window. Just stop treating it as the whole season. The window to build affinity, not just the basket, is open right now, while shoppers are still deciding who they trust. The brands that show up with a genuine value message today will be poised to win now and through the end of the year.
Discover how your brand can win the holiday basket
with the verified results of the Ibotta Performance Network.
Contact us today